@Article{PesPeMaMaHeSc:2017:ClTrEx,
author = "Pes, Marcelo Pizzuti and Pereira, Enio Bueno and Marengo,
Jos{\'e} A. and Martins, Fernando R. and Heinemann, Detlev and
Schmidt, Michael",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Centro Nacional de
Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)} and
{Universidade Federal de S{\~a}o Paulo (UNIFESP)} and Carl Von
Ossietzky University, Institute of Physic and Carl Von Ossietzky
University, Institute of Physic",
title = "Climate trends on the extreme winds in Brazil",
journal = "Renewable Energy",
year = "2017",
volume = "109",
pages = "110--120",
month = "Aug.",
keywords = "Climate trends, Cluster analysis, Extreme winds, Frequency
distributions, Mann-Kendall test, Wind energy.",
abstract = "The main source of electricity in Brazil is from hydro, which has
about 65.2% share of the country's electric energy matrix.
However, over the last decade the wind energy increased from 19 MW
to 2.2 GW. Since wind is an intermittent energy source, heavily
determined by the weather and climatic conditions, and important
effects on wind power generation can be expected in the mid and
long term, in particular related to the impacts of extreme winds.
The IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicates
changes in wind speed at the surface in some regions of the world,
and increased wind strength in mid-latitude regions. This study
scrutinizes future scenarios of extreme winds in Brazil by
applying trend analysis techniques on a 50-year historical series
of observational wind speed and meteorological parameters at 10 m
height in Brazil. Embracing techniques of cluster analysis it was
possible to characterize six main regions with macro climatic
similarities. To assess the goodness fit distribution, we
designate two stations per homogenous region, taking as criteria
the stations with better performance in the qualification process
to determine the wind distribution pattern in each region applying
the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) and the lowest standard error
(SE). After evaluating the frequency distribution of wind speed,
the best fit result for the frequency distribution of maximum wind
speed is the Gumbel model. The analysis of climatic trends
performed by Mann-Kendall test revealed that in minimum wind speed
series is not conclusive because it shows disparate results
between homogeneous regions. On the other hand, the analysis of
climatic trends of maximum wind speed presents 100% positive
trends in Group#1, an equal number of stations with not
significant trends and positive trends for Group#2, 36.8% more
stations with positive trends than negative trends for Group#3 and
20% of stations with more negative trends than stations with
positive trends for Group#4. This way, based in these results, is
possible assert that there are an increase in the maximum extreme
wind in Brazil, mainly in mid-latitudes.",
doi = "10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.101",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.101",
issn = "0960-1481",
language = "en",
targetfile = "pes_climate.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}